Commissioned by the Lithuanian Museums Association in 2014, ProBaltic Consulting prepared the foresight and strategic development guidelines to 2025 for Lithuania’s museums–schools collaboration network — we delivered strategic planning training, ran future-scenario seminars in four cities and, through a Delphi survey, distilled a shared stakeholder vision: “A Modern Museum for the School“.
| Client | Lithuanian Museums Association |
|---|---|
| Project | “Museum – School – Student. A national partnership network of museums and general education schools” (SFMIS No. VP1-2.2-ŠMM-10-V-02-012) |
| Field | Future foresight, culture and education policy |
| Years | 2014 (August–December) · horizon — 2025 |
| Scope | Seminars in 4 cities (90+ experts) · 16 scenarios · a 212-expert Delphi survey |
| Methods | Environmental scanning; the future scenario method; cross-impact analysis; Delphi survey; roadmapping; SWOT; SMART goals |
| Result | The “Modern Museum for the School” vision and strategic development guidelines to 2025 with 3 directions |
Challenge: a strategy ten years ahead
The main challenge was the 2025 perspective: it is often hard to say what will happen in two or three years, and here the goal was to plan activities for a decade. All our knowledge and experience rest on the past and the present, yet a strategy for the future has to be created now, before we know what that future might be. Methodological solutions were needed to connect knowledge about the past, present and future — which is precisely what foresight methods are for. An additional argument was public expectation: according to a Vilmorus survey, 83% of Lithuanian residents believed museum visits should be included in school curricula.
Solution: a five-stage foresight process
1. Environmental scanning. The museum landscape and its links with general education schools were analysed, and the key trends shaping the development of museums, schools and their collaboration were identified.
2. Future scenarios. In strategic planning seminars in Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipėda and Šiauliai, involving more than 90 experts, the highest-impact trends were selected, cross-impact analysis was performed and 16 alternative future scenarios for 2025 were built.
3. Delphi survey. The 6 strongest scenarios were assessed by 212 experts — an anonymous, systematic survey with controlled feedback enabled an objective consensus on the desirability and feasibility of the scenarios, protecting the process from dominant personalities. The stage concluded with a shared vision agreed by all stakeholders — “A Modern Museum for the School”: modern yet still real, proactively bringing traditional values to life.
4. Roadmapping. Four strategic sessions produced four roadmaps — the paths for closing the gap between the present and the chosen vision. The roadmap answers four questions in four bands, with interim milestones for 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025:
5. Strategic guidelines to 2025. Based on the session material, foreign experience (notably the United Kingdom and Denmark) and SWOT analysis, strategic development guidelines for Lithuania’s museums–schools collaboration network were prepared, with three directions: creating the organisational structures of the partnership, ensuring the quality of cultural education in museums and disseminating information about cultural education opportunities. Goals were formulated to SMART principles.
Results
- A consensus-based vision, “A Modern Museum for the School” — a rare case of museum professionals, schools, municipalities and the education and culture ministries agreeing on a common future;
- Strategic development guidelines to 2025 with priority directions, SMART goals and recommendations on measures;
- Four integrated roadmaps with interim milestones for 2016–2025;
- More than 100 participants gained strategic planning, scenario building and roadmapping skills — the competence stayed in the sector;
- Foresight methods (scenarios, Delphi, roadmaps) made it possible to answer questions traditional strategic planning never even asks: what could museums and schools look like in 10 years — and what do we actually want?
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Since 2007, ProBaltic Consulting has delivered future foresights, scenarios and strategies for the public sector and business — from methodology to expert process moderation and consensus building. Learn about our studies, evaluations and foresight services or get in touch.