The main objective of the Photovoltaic sector (further referred as PV) foresight – to propose strategic recommendations for development of Lithuanian PV sector viable across different future environmental scenarios. Methodology for development of the future scenarios of PV sector in Lithuania towards 2025 was mainly based on explorative, qualitative approach.
Scenarios are not prognosis or forecasts or prediction of the future trends or events, but rather stories (or statements) about possible future explorative contexts that will possibly surround PV sector in Lithuania in the future (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Scenarios versus prognosis
PV foresight process
Foresight started with the development of studies and market research that served as an input to the foresight process (Figure 2). It was followed by the survey of international experts in the area and interviews of 15 core members of the PV industry in Lithuania. Identification of the key trends having potentially highest impact for the sector were identified and used to form environmental future scenarios. Future scenarios were developed within industry experts panel and then polished to ensure their clarity and consistency. Then strategic options for future development of the sector were proposed. At the final stage, internal meeting of stakeholders was devoted for testing identified strategic options against future scenarios, while using wind tunneling method.
Figure 2. PV Foresight cycle
Studies, survey, and interviews
The following studies were undertaken at analysis stage:
- Study on mid-term and long-term trends of global photovoltaic industry development
- Study on state of the art and next generation photovoltaic
- Study on present and prospective PV applications and challenges for PV industry.
- Study on dynamics of photovoltaics busines: integration and competitiveness in energy sector.
Main objective of the PV experts – identification and evaluation of trends and key drivers for PV industry in terms of their certainty and possible impact for PV sector in Lithuania as well as possible strategic options.
Main objective of PV expert interviews – to gain understanding about current situation of PV sector in Lithuania in terms of challenges, opportunities, existing and currently developed capabilities as well as possible strategic options for PV sector as a whole.
Key trends and driving forces, key uncertainties and polarities
As result of PV expert survey, trend impact and uncertainty matrix was developed. The matrix served for selection of key uncertainties for setting future scenario axis (Figure 3).